Never Tell Me the Odds…
Apparently, Vegas actually has odds up on who is going to survive the final season of Game of Thrones, and even odds on various fan theories.
Variety: Vegas Odds on Game of Thrones Final Season
In light of this week’s episode (Season 8, Episode 2), I was thinking about the odds I’d give the characters surviving next week’s episode, which will be the “final” battle for Winterfell.
(WARNING: There are spoilers below for this season!!! If you’re not caught up to the latest episode, please don’t keep reading!!!)
Here are the odds I’d give for who’s going to die next week. To clarify: 100% means they’re fodder, 0% means they’ll live on for at least another episode.
Winterfell: 100%
Should be a no-brainer that Winterfell is probably going to fall, fell?, taken, destroyed, whatever. There are a lot of theories about how it will happen, like the Night King is now some sort of brilliant strategist or something. So far, he’s just been using his superior numbers to overwhelm anyone in their path, and it’s worked out pretty well.
They could throw in a twist, though, especially with all the innocents taking refuge in the crypts.
Theon Greyjoy: 100%
Theon’s arc at this point is all about him seeking redemption, and his final act will be redeeming himself in the eyes of the Starks, who’s he’s repeatedly betrayed. What better way for him to redeem himself than to sacrifice his own life to protect one of the Starks?
Grey Worm/Missandei: 100% that one will die: 80% both will die
Planning their post-conquest life just before a major life or death battle? Yeah, that’s almost a guarantee that one or both of them will die.
Samwell / Bran: 100% that one of them will die
Bran is using himself as bait to lure the Night King out, so there’s a very good chance that plan will not end well. Both Sam and Bran’s usefulness at this point really revolves around discovering a way to stop the White Walkers and their knowledge of Jon’s true parentage. Sam is long thought to be George R. R. Martin’s proxy in the books, so I’d give him the edge on sticking around a bit longer.
(Side bet: Night King dies and Bran becomes the new Night King: 10%)
Varys: 100%
Varys is basically fodder at this point.
Gendry: 100%
He’s created all of the dragon glass weapons, so he’s done. His status as Robert’s bastard probably won’t save him. At least he got to have sex with Arya, so that’s something?
Anyone I haven’t named: 100%
Podrick, Ed, Baeric, etc. Time to make some new White Walkers!
Sir Brienne of Tarth: 70%
Like Theon, she’s pretty much played out her arc at this point, and being knighted is just icing on the cake. What nobler death could she have than to die protecting the innocents at Winterfell? I’m reducing her odds just a bit for the potential fun of watching Tormund continue to try to find a way to impress/seduce her.
Dragons: 70% that one will die
My prediction here is that one will die trying to kill the Night King’s new flying mount. The remaining dragon may be in a situation where he has to roast both the NK mount and his brother in order to kill them.
Jamie/Tyrion: 50%
I’d say one or the other is worm food. I don’t see both brothers walking away from this one. One of them may be needed in the final confrontation with Cersei. Between the two of them, I’d put Tyrion as the one to die. If Jamie proves himself on the battlefield, he might be useful helping command the remainder of the forces from Winterfell.
Tormund: 30%
Things are going to be real ugly the rest of the season, and Tormund will be a breath of fresh (and funny) air. And, should Brienne survive, he can keep hitting on her.
Arya: 30%
Outside of the rumor that she’s GRRM’s favorite character, I’m not sure if she’ll make it till the end. I’ll give her a chance simply so she could have a shot at actually killing Cersei.
The Hound: 25%
Only because I think there are a huge number fo fans who want to see a final Cleganebowl between the Hound and his undead? brother, the Mountain.
Jorah Mormont: 25%
I could see him being fodder at this point, but I could also see him take over as Hand should Tyrion die. If Tyrion lives, then Jorah is likely fodder.
Jon “Snow”: 0%
He’ll try like hell to get slaughtered, but he’ll escape just in the nick of time (again).
Now that Danaerys knows about his parentage, he’ll be around until the Game is almost done. If he hadn’t told Dany, I’d put his odds at 70%
(Side bet: Odds that Dany feeds him to a dragon later: 50%)
Danaerys: 0%
Again, she and Sansa are still playing the Game, so she’ll be around until the end. She’s not super thrilled to learn about Jon’s little secret (and she’s not pissed that she’s sleeping with her nephew).
Sansa: 0%
She’s still in the game. My money is also betting she will learn about Jon’s true heritage, and there will be a tug of war between her and Dany over who has a stronger claim to the throne. If they were deciding now, Dany has two armies, so “bigger army diplomacy” would win.
But, how much of anyone’s armies will survive the battle for Winterfell is anyone’s guess.
It’s pretty clear, at least in my opinion, that the Game will end up being a battle of wills between Cersei, Dany and Sansa, or whoever’s still alive. Bigger-army-diplomacy will also play a role. (So, maybe, the Night King wins the Iron Throne?)
My personal favorite: Jon kills the Night King, only to die and become the new Night King, and he (the currently “most-legitimate” claim to the throne) beats everyone, wins the Game and takes the Iron Throne.
So, anyway, those are my odds for next week’s episode. I’ll have to post again next week to review how right (and wrong) I was.